NCAA Tournament analysis (2024)

Alabama, Houston, Kansas and Purdue earned No. 1 seeds in this year's NCAA Tournament, while Mississippi State, Pittsburgh, Arizona State and Nevada narrowly made the field as the last four in.

See the full bracket here. Follow along for region breakdowns, picks, analysis and more.

(Photo: Grant Halverson / Getty Images)

The league has had the odds in its favor — earning 139 bids from the 2001 postseason through last year. Only 52 of them have made the Sweet 16. Things happen in March, but the spotty history legitimizes questioning the validity of the conference’s perceived excellence.

The notion that the Big Ten’s quality equates to members beating up on each other, and pulverizing them into early March submissions, is negated by the Big 12, where the league slate is not exactly kind, either. And yet since Michigan State’s title, the Big 12 has managed to secure three championships. “Are we gonna give them 10 again, and then they all lose?’’ says a coach from another league. “Or are we going to maybe take our own advice at some point?” Apparently not. This year the conference will send more teams than any other once again.

Is there any sign, after five days of hoops in Chicago, that the results will be any different this time around? The Selection Committee would seem to have its reservations. Indiana is the only other team on the high side of the bracket, seeded fourth. They locked three teams in the tricky 8-9 game — Iowa and Maryland on the 8 line, Illinois at 9 — and slid Michigan State and Northwestern in at 7. Penn State, the league runner-up, enters as a No. 10 seed.

The one thing working in the league’s favor is that the rest of the country is much like the Big Ten. That is to say, everyone has issues. The line of demarcation between legit title contenders and everyone else is fuzzier than ever, the season-long theme that there is a collection of good teams, but no great ones, not fading as the year reaches its crescendo.

Read more here.

Looking for a trend or stat to help you fill out your bracket — or place a few bets for the NCAA Tournament? We’ve scoured data, records and trends for all 68 teams. Which are hot, which score in bunches, which are good to bet overs or unders and more.

While what follows is a thoroughly researched piece with something useful on each team, this is meant to provide a broad view of the tournament field, with a bit of a betting slant, in an easily digestible format. This is not a super in-depth breakdown of the teams.

Read in full below.

The brackets are out! Here at Bracket Breaker Central, we’re geeking out so badly, we can barely keep up with the reams of ticker tape Slingshot is spitting out. As always, we’ll have detailed analysis of every game with giant-killing implications in the lead-up to Thursday’s action, plus our annual lookahead at potential second-round Bracket Breaker matchups. But we wanted to get you some numbers right away. So, below, you’ll find the list of the top-10 most likely first-round upsets according to our statistical model.

Speaking of Slingshot, we’ve spiffed it up this March. With the help of our outstanding team of Furman math professors – Liz Bouzarth, John Harris and Kevin Hutson – we have incorporated all kinds of bells and whistles into our model that we’ve written about before but never fully deployed. These include cluster analysis, more sophisticated measures of team pace and comparisons to similar games from the past. Our quick reaction: This field looks thrillingly friendly to upsets — more like 2021 than 2022. And in the coolest twist of fate we’ve seen since we started doing this in 2006, our professors’ home school (Furman) reached its first NCAA tournament since 1980, and drew a matchup with a team our model pegs as the most vulnerable giant in the field. Madness, indeed.

If you’re new here, this article from 2021 does a good job explaining how we look for upsets and what teams are more likely to pull them in March Madness.

See the full list here.

(Photo: USA Today)

No more debating, no more projecting, no more bubbling, no more guessing. The official 2023 men’s NCAA Tournament bracket is here. There are lots of methods to filling out a bracket, but for me, it starts with three simple words: Do it quickly. I don’t have much choice, because very shortly after I get handed a bracket in the CBS studio, we are presenting it to America via the Selection Show. I don’t have time to dilly-dally.

I usually go into the show with a short list of mid-major teams I’m looking to pick for upsets. I couldn’t quite pick as many as I thought I would because I didn’t love the matchups, but I’m pretty sure I won’t get accused of being too shy with my upset specials. I like to have fun and take chances, so let the bracket pooler beware if you want to copy my selections.

See the full bracket here.

Purdue just took care of a preternaturally tough-minded Penn State team, 67-65, nearly blowing a late 15-point lead due to — this is a recording — the Nittany Lions’ full-court press. Think Purdue’s future opponents will notice? Answer: Yes. Absolutely. But on a late afternoon when Purdue’s backcourt of Braden Smith, Brandon Newman and Fletcher Loyer combined to shoot 2 of 20, Zach Edey dominated the way he always does. Dominated in a way that showed you, again, why he’s going to be the nation’s Player of the Year.

But now the question arises, and the puckering around West Lafayette will commence:

Is this finally the year? Is this finally the year Painter, who earned the first No. 1 seed of his fine career, gets the Boilermakers to the Final Four? As every good Boilers fan knows, the last time Purdue went to the Final Four was when Lee Rose led them there in 1980. Other than that, there have been lots of close calls and near-misses and heartbreaks and, well, you can’t tell the history of Purdue basketball without mentioning the bad breaks.

Read more here.

(Photo: Michael Reaves / Getty Images)

The brackets have been unveiled, the bubbles are burst for several teams and everyone is ready for March Madness. Spreads and odds for the First Four and first round of the NCAA Tournament were released on Sunday night shortly after the selection show; several lines have already moved a handful of points as sharp bettors look to find value.

Kansas is the biggest favorite in the first round — the Jayhawks are favored by 21.5 points against Howard. Houston is favored by 19.5 points against Northern Kentucky.

If you’re looking for points, Missouri and Utah State’s game total is set at 155.5. Note that game tips off at 10:40 a.m. local time in Sacramento. Princeton and Arizona are also predicted to have a high-scoring affair, with the total set at 154.5.

There are always a few matchups where the higher-seeded team isn’t the favorite, at least according to the sportsbooks.

See all the odds and spreads here.

(Photo: USA Today)

Alabama is the No. 1 overall seed for the 2023 NCAA Tournament, but the Crimson Tide aren’t the favorites to cut down the nets. The Houston Cougars finished the regular season 31-3 and are the favorites (+550) at BetMGM. On Sunday, Memphis beat the Cougars, 75-65, in the American Athletic Conference title game. Kansas (+800), Alabama (+800), Purdue (+1100) and UCLA (+1200) are the other teams near the top of the odds.

Read more below.

The South Region features overall No. 1 seed Alabama, which is aiming for its first national championship. The Crimson Tide earned their first top seed just hours after securing their second SEC tournament title in three seasons. Two seasons ago, they advanced to the Sweet 16 as a No. 2 seed but were upset in overtime by UCLA. Alabama edged out other top seeds Kansas and Houston for the top spot. The Crimson Tide are the story of the tournament, where controversy follows them following the team’s handling of Brandon Miller.

The region also features No. 2 seed Arizona, which advanced to the Sweet 16 as a No. 1 seed last season and comes into this season’s tournament after claiming its second-straight Pac-12 tournament title. No. 3 seed Baylor, which won the national title in 2021, might also be a tough out. Figure on a physical and entertaining battle between No. 8 Maryland and No. 9 West Virginia, which has played one of the toughest schedules among tournament teams.

Read more here.

No one in men’s college basketball has won back-to-back national titles since the Joakim Noah-led Florida Gators did so in 2006 and 2007. But here comes the Kansas Jayhawks to try to do just that — Bill Self’s group looks a lot different than the one that cut down the nets in New Orleans last April, but it’s earned a No. 1 seed and ready to go this March.

It will have challengers though. UCLA is a tough No. 2 seed, even without injured wing Jaylen Clark. Gonzaga is a No. 3 seed still looking for its first national title, led by program legend Drew Timme. Then you have a resurgent UConn, thriving Saint Mary’s and dangerous teams down the bracket like Northwestern, Arkansas and Illinois.

Read more here.

Can Houston get to the Final Four in its home city? If so, the Cougars will have to do it through the Midwest Region — and battle some hot teams and interesting challenges along the way.

Kelvin Sampson’s team, the No. 2 overall seed, could potentially face Auburn in Birmingham in the second round. A Sweet 16 matchup against Indiana and star Trayce Jackson-Davis or a top 10-caliber Xavier team could await. And don’t forget about No. 2 seed Texas, which won the Big 12 tournament and had 14 Quad 1 wins this season, second-most in the country. Or Miami, which was the No. 1 seed in the ACC tournament and went to the Elite Eight last year with most of the same players. Meanwhile, Texas A&M was playing as well as anyone down the stretch, while Penn State nearly won the Big Ten tournament. And they’re playing in the 7-10 game.

Read more here.

The East Region features the Big Ten regular and tournament champion Purdue, starring national player of the year favorite Zach Edey. The Boilermakers have not been to a Final Four since 1980, but to finally break that long drought it’ll take excellent basketball from coach Matt Painter’s team.

Big East champ Marquette is the No. 2 seed. ACC champ Duke is the No. 5 seed, coming together late this year with nine straight wins to end the regular season and through the conference tournament. Then you have Hall of Famers like Tom Izzo and John Calipari lurking, plus young rising stars in the coaching profession like Jerome Tang (Kansas State) and Dusty May (Florida Atlantic).

Read more here.

Houston earning the No. 2 overall seed over Kansas — and getting the Kansas City region. While Houston was No. 1 in computer rankings for much of the season, Kansas racked up a record 17 Quad 1 wins and won the regular-season title in the best league in the country, the Big 12. Meanwhile, Houston played in the much weaker American Athletic Conference and lost in its league tournament final to Memphis on Sunday.

To top it off, Kansas got sent out West, where it could have to contend with UCLA and Gonzaga in their time zone in a potential Elite Eight showdown. That’s if the Jayhawks can get by teams like UConn and Saint Mary’s in the top half of the bracket. It’s a rough way to treat the defending champs. To be fair, Houston didn’t get a substantially easier path. The Cougars could potentially face Auburn in Birmingham in the second round — the committee flubbed big time on that one — then either Xavier or Indiana in the Sweet 16 and possibly Big 12 tournament champ Texas, which could have been a No. 1 seed. Nevada making the field as the fourth team from the Mountain West was also a surprise, as most bracketologists had them out.

Texas A&M vs. Penn State, which nearly won the Big Ten tournament, is a high-level 7-10 game. Kentucky will face Providence and its star Bryce Hopkins, who transferred from the Wildcats last year. All the 8-9 games are intriguing, especially Illinois–Arkansas. And Duke, as a No. 5 seed, will take on a popular Cinderella pick in Oral Roberts, which went undefeated in the Summit League and has a star guard in Max Abmas, who helped lead the Golden Eagles to the Sweet 16 two years ago.

Looking ahead to the second round, we could get Texas-Texas A&M, Duke-Tennessee and UConn-Saint Mary’s, if those teams advance.

Texas A&M earned just the No. 7 seed despite playing like one of the best teams in the country in the final few months, including a win over No. 1 overall seed Alabama in the regular-season finale. The Aggies, though, played a bad nonconference schedule, which cost them a bid last year and knocked them a couple of seed lines lower this time around.

Rutgers also got punished for a bad out-of-league schedule, missing the field despite wins at Purdue, Northwestern, Penn State and against Indiana. The committee has shown it time and time again: Play good teams out of your conference, or suffer the consequences.

(Photo: USA Today)

For UNC, this means:

1. Leaky Black and Pete Nance's college careers are over.
2. Armando Bacot must decide if he wants to use his COVID year of eligibility.
3. Everyone else on the roster (notably Caleb Love and R.J. Davis) must make decisions on their futures, too.

Tuesday

• Southeast Missouri State vs. Texas A&M Corpus Christi
• Mississippi State vs. Pittsburgh

Wednesday

• Texas Southern vs. Fairleigh Dickinson
• Arizona State vs. Nevada